预见2026 | 拥抱债市定价新常态 在震荡博弈中把握分化与机遇

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in China for 2025 is characterized by a "volatile" main line amidst complex internal and external environments, with a typical "top-down" fluctuation pattern observed throughout the year [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated within a range of approximately 30 basis points, failing to establish a single trend direction [1] - Key variables such as "tariff disturbances," "anti-involution policies," and "central bank bond purchase operations" have segmented the market rhythm [1][2] - The interaction between policy expectations and market dynamics has become increasingly intricate, with frequent shifts testing investors' ability to interpret policy intentions [2] Group 2: Performance of Different Maturities - The performance of various maturities throughout the year reflects the ongoing tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, with different dominant logics at each stage [3] - Early-year positive data pushed the yield curve into a "bear flattening," while spring tariff shocks triggered a brief bull market [3] Group 3: Credit Market Evolution - The credit bond market is evolving from a simplistic "identity label" approach to a deeper examination of companies' cash flow and debt repayment capabilities [4] - The pricing logic of credit bonds is shifting towards a focus on the issuer's operational cash flow and debt service capacity, indicating a new normal in credit assessment [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to play a dual role in enhancing its infrastructure and understanding new interest rate trends in a complex macroeconomic landscape [5][6] - A "moderately loose" monetary policy is anticipated to continue, with a more flexible and efficient operational focus, leading to potential downward pressure on short-term bond yields [6] Group 5: Investment Strategy - In the face of increasing differentiation and competition, it is recommended to build a stable investment portfolio with high-grade assets in the short to medium term while capturing trading opportunities in long-term rate bonds [7] - The bond market's ongoing volatility is seen as a catalyst for eliminating outdated paradigms and fostering new insights, emphasizing the importance of returning to value fundamentals [7]