张军扩：持续有效释放消费需求潜力要长短兼顾、标本兼治

Core Viewpoint - The current market faces insufficient demand, characterized by strong supply and weak demand, leading to price weakness. Effective release of consumer demand potential requires both short-term and long-term strategies to address structural issues [1][6]. Group 1: Demand and Consumption - Structural reasons for insufficient demand include a long-term low consumption rate, estimated to be 10% to 20% below potential. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for expanding domestic demand [2][7]. - The transition of consumer behavior from goods-oriented to a balance of goods and services consumption necessitates a dual approach to stimulate demand and optimize economic structure [1][6]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - Implement counter-cyclical consumption demand stimulus policies that optimize the support structure for goods consumption while increasing support for service consumption. This includes addressing urgent public needs in education, healthcare, and social security to enhance consumer willingness and capacity [3][8]. - Effectively execute a plan to increase residents' income and improve social security and public service levels for low-income groups, thereby boosting consumer confidence and security expectations [3][8]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - There remains significant potential for investment, which should be supported through institutional and policy innovations. While consumer demand is crucial for economic growth, investment should not be neglected [4][9]. - Key focus areas for expanding effective investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" include developing new urban and real estate models and boosting private and foreign investment through improved business environments and reforms [4][9].