光鲜下的另一面,BD交易后股价不涨反跌成常态?
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang·2025-12-27 03:33

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese innovative pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a surge in business development (BD) transactions, but the secondary market's reaction has been mixed, with many companies seeing stock price declines despite positive announcements [2][6][10]. Group 1: Recent BD Transactions - Numerous BD transactions have been announced recently, including partnerships between Jiangsu Zaiming and Ipsen, and between Akeso and AstraZeneca, among others [2]. - In 2023, over 100 license-out transactions were completed in China, totaling more than $110 billion [4]. - As of December 21, 2025, there have been 15 transactions with upfront payments exceeding $100 million, and 37 transactions with total amounts over $1 billion, ranking second only to the U.S. [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of BD transactions, stock prices have shown varied responses; for instance, Akeso's stock fell by 13.58% on December 22, while Qianxin Bio's stock rose by 1.44% on the same day [3][6]. - A total of 37 BD transactions in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks this year resulted in 21 instances of stock price increases and 15 instances of declines on the first trading day after the announcements [6]. - The overall sentiment in the market has shifted from enthusiasm to a more rational approach, with stock prices reflecting this change [8][10]. Group 3: Industry Insights - Industry experts suggest that the complexity and long-term nature of innovative drug development require a rational approach from both capital and product markets [6][10]. - The current trend indicates that many Chinese pharmaceutical companies are still reliant on the "borrowed boat" strategy for international expansion, with a focus on licensing out rather than direct commercialization [12][13]. - The choice of out-licensing models varies, with smaller companies typically opting for complete licensing, while larger firms are exploring co-development models to retain longer-term benefits [13][14].