余永定：从长期看，消费不可能是经济增长动力

Core Viewpoint - The long-term economic growth in China cannot rely solely on consumption, as production expansion depends on the transformation of surplus value into additional capital, which is fundamentally linked to investment [3][7]. Investment and Infrastructure - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a modern infrastructure system, mentioning infrastructure 19 times, indicating the central government's focus on infrastructure investment. This suggests that the investment scale in China will be enormous over the next five years to achieve the goal of building a modern industrial system [3][7]. - Increasing infrastructure investment is seen as an effective policy tool to address insufficient effective demand, providing both long-term economic stability and short-term demand support. Infrastructure investment is directly controlled by the government and does not depend on GDP growth [4][8]. Income Distribution and Consumption - Income distribution in China remains uneven, with the economic coefficient still at a high level despite some narrowing. This uneven distribution affects consumption potential, which is limited by factors such as income, income expectations, wealth, and permanent income [3][7]. - While stimulating consumption is necessary, it is crucial to recognize that direct measures to boost consumption often come at the cost of reduced investment, potentially leading to slower economic growth and inflation risks in the future [3][7]. Future Economic Growth - The primary driver of economic growth in 2026 is expected to be infrastructure investment, although there is a significant risk of hesitation in implementing large-scale stimulating policies [4][9].