余永定：认为中国投资效率低下的说法是片面的

Core Viewpoint - The long-term economic growth in China cannot rely solely on consumption, as production expansion depends on the transformation of surplus value into additional capital, which is fundamentally linked to investment [3][7]. Investment and Infrastructure - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a modern infrastructure system, mentioning infrastructure 19 times, indicating the central government's focus on infrastructure investment [3][7]. - The investment scale in China is expected to be enormous over the next five years to achieve the goal of building a modern industrial system [3][7]. - Increasing infrastructure investment is seen as an effective policy tool to address insufficient demand, promoting stable long-term economic growth while also addressing short-term demand shortages [4][8]. Income Distribution and Consumption - Income distribution inequality remains a significant issue in China, with the economic coefficient still at a relatively high level despite some narrowing [3][7]. - While stimulating consumption is necessary, it is limited by factors such as income, income expectations, wealth, and permanent income, which do not change easily [3][7]. - Direct measures to stimulate consumption have had some success but often come at the cost of reduced investment, leading to slower economic growth and potential inflation risks in the future [3][7]. Future Economic Growth - The primary driver of economic growth in 2026 is expected to be infrastructure investment, although there is a risk of hesitation in implementing large-scale stimulating policies [4][9].