杨伟民建言“十五五”：五大战略任务需实现重大突破

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China Wealth Management Forum emphasizes the importance of achieving breakthroughs in five strategic tasks during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period to build a financial power [1] Economic Growth - Maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range is the top priority for the "14th Five-Year Plan," crucial for achieving significant progress in socialist modernization [3][12] - The target for reasonable growth is approximately 4.5% for both actual and nominal GDP, aligning with the goal of reaching the per capita GDP of a moderately developed country by 2035 [3][12] - The nominal growth is projected to be lower than actual growth in 2023, 2024, and 2025, leading to weaker growth in urban residents' income, corporate profits, and fiscal revenue, exacerbating insufficient domestic demand [3][12] Macro Control - The focus of macroeconomic control during the early phase of the "14th Five-Year Plan" must shift to promoting price recovery, as opposed to merely preventing price increases [4][13] - The overall tone of macroeconomic policy is to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with monetary policy aimed at supporting this recovery [4][13] Development of New Productive Forces - The development of new productive forces is essential for the advancement of China's modern industrial system and is key to winning in the context of global changes and technological revolutions [5][14] - The focus during the "14th Five-Year Plan" should be on digitalization and low-carbon technologies, aiming for breakthroughs in critical and frontier technologies [5][14] Modern Industrial System - A modern industrial system must maintain a reasonable proportion of manufacturing, ensuring that the manufacturing sector's share of GDP remains stable and does not decline too rapidly [6][15] - Lessons from early industrialized countries indicate that a decline in manufacturing share can lead to vulnerabilities, such as falling into the middle-income trap [6][15] Consumer Spending - Increasing the resident consumption rate is identified as a core driver for economic growth, with a need to generate an additional 35 trillion yuan in total demand during the "14th Five-Year Plan" if growth is to be maintained at 4.5% [8][17] - The contribution of imports and exports to economic growth is expected to decline, necessitating a shift towards expanding domestic demand [8][17] Distribution Structure - Optimizing the distribution system is crucial for promoting common prosperity and increasing the consumption rate, which is vital for maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range [9][18] - Policies should focus on improving income distribution, raising minimum wage standards, and enhancing the income of low-income groups to ensure that disposable income grows faster than economic growth [9][18]