华泰证券:钢铁债配置建议以规模、资金优势较明显的央国企配置为主,适度挖掘3年内永续债机会
Ge Long Hui A P P·2025-12-27 06:31

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry has adjusted its product structure and increased exports since 2021, but prices remain under pressure. Recent anti-involution policies have alleviated supply-demand conflicts, leading to a recovery in corporate profits. However, this round of anti-involution differs from the supply-side reforms of 2015, as the current supply relies more on self-discipline mechanisms and demand remains differentiated [1] Group 1 - Since 2021, steel companies have focused on adjusting product structures and increasing exports, but they face price pressures [1] - The implementation of anti-involution policies this year has marginally eased supply-demand conflicts, resulting in a recovery in corporate profits [1] - The current supply-side adjustments depend more on self-discipline mechanisms, while demand continues to show differentiation [1] Group 2 - The industry is expected to continue improving in supply-demand dynamics under the influence of anti-involution policies, although the extent of improvement may be limited [1] - The overall low level of industry bond spreads indicates ongoing differentiation in the fundamental conditions of companies [1] - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on central state-owned enterprises with significant scale and funding advantages, while also exploring opportunities in perpetual bonds within three years [1]