Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-27 06:39Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver markets are experiencing a significant resurgence, with gold surpassing $4500 per ounce and silver exceeding $79.3 per ounce, both reaching historical highs as uncertainties dissipate [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold has seen a year-to-date increase of 72.69%, approaching the second-highest historical record from 1974, while silver's annual increase stands at 173.99%, significantly surpassing the 83.61% rise in 2010 [1][2]. - The silver market is expected to set a historical record for annual growth in 2025, with a market dynamic characterized by gold leading and silver experiencing explosive growth [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Market Trends - Investment demand has overtaken central bank gold purchases as the primary driver of the market, alongside structural squeezes in the silver market due to global inventory issues and strong industrial demand [2]. - A decline of approximately 10% in the US dollar index, coupled with the Federal Reserve's resumption of rate cuts and technical balance sheet expansion, has contributed to the bullish sentiment in precious metals [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts generally expect the strong performance of gold and silver to continue, although they anticipate that the rate of increase will not match the extraordinary levels seen in 2025 [5]. - The macroeconomic environment for 2026 is viewed as optimistic, with expectations of continued Federal Reserve rate cuts and a global liquidity environment remaining loose, which may influence the performance of risk assets and the appeal of gold as a safe haven [5][6]. Group 4: Strategic Positioning - The global precious metals market is deemed suitable for strategic allocation, with gold recommended as a core defensive asset supported by central bank purchases and ETF inflows, while silver is suggested for high-elasticity allocation during phases of capital inflow [6]. - Analysts have identified potential risks for silver, including rapid capital withdrawal from ETFs, the return of US silver stocks to London, and the lack of inclusion of silver in global central bank balance sheets, which may affect its status as a defensive reserve asset [6].