白重恩：重视“投资于改革”价值 与投资于物、投资于人同等发力

Core Viewpoint - The current economic environment in China faces challenges such as insufficient total demand, strong supply but weak demand, and price weakness, necessitating more proactive fiscal and monetary policy collaboration [3][7]. Investment Direction - Investment in both physical assets and human capital is crucial, but each faces practical considerations. Investment in new productive forces, technological self-innovation, and strengthening manufacturing is essential, while excessive investment in real estate is inadvisable due to high inventory levels. Traditional infrastructure investment has diminishing marginal returns and maintenance costs, and manufacturing investment must guard against overcapacity risks [3][7]. - Human capital investments in healthcare, elderly care, and education require increased funding but must be carefully planned due to their irreversible nature [3][7]. Funding Sources - The management of deficit size and debt levels must balance short-term effects with long-term sustainability. A new approach termed "investment in reform" is proposed, which involves using current strong fiscal and monetary policies to support the transitional costs of reforms, especially in the context of insufficient total demand [3][7]. Reform Directions - Local fiscal reform is highlighted as a key area for progress, suggesting that the central government should replace part of local debt with national bonds while coordinating with local fiscal reforms and market-oriented financing platform reforms [4][8]. - Financing platforms should transition from primarily serving fiscal needs to becoming genuine market entities, optimizing tax and expenditure structures to achieve fiscal balance [4][8]. Policy Coordination - After the issuance of national bonds by the fiscal department, the monetary department should actively purchase these bonds to mitigate market shocks. Expanding the central bank's balance sheet is not expected to have significant negative impacts and can alleviate local government debt pressure, enabling more active support for livelihoods and local development, thus stimulating economic growth and returning prices to reasonable levels [9]. - Moderate inflation, while appearing as an "inflation tax," can actually promote total demand growth, stabilize prices, increase employment, and enhance asset value, ultimately benefiting residents in the long run [9].