方正富邦策略会：高质量发展将成为2026年经济工作主线 股票投资有望继续领跑

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The year 2026 will mark the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with high-quality development as the main focus of economic work, emphasizing quality, efficiency, and sustainability over mere speed of growth [1] - Significant growth momentum has been observed in high-tech manufacturing, green energy, and the digital economy, with the contribution of equipment manufacturing to industrial growth continuing to rise [1] - 2025 is expected to be a year of concentrated technological innovation in China, with breakthroughs in areas such as commercial aerospace, quantum computing, solid-state batteries, and synthetic biology transitioning into real productive forces [1] Group 2: Market Predictions - ETF fund flows are seen as a leading indicator for market trends, with a focus on "domestic substitution + AI computing power" and the industrial cycle as key themes for 2026 [2] - A recovery in A-share revenue and profit growth is anticipated in 2025, with an increase in private equity and margin financing, leading to a notable rise in A-share valuations [2] - The A-share market is expected to continue leading in stock investments, supported by changes in the attractiveness of real estate and fixed income investments [2] Group 3: Sector Focus - Continued optimism is expressed for sectors such as lithium batteries, power equipment, PCB, and semiconductor storage, particularly in relation to solid-state batteries and AI advancements [3] - The AI industry chain is viewed as a long-term market focus, with investment logic shifting from infrastructure to application side, highlighting the importance of components like optical modules and storage chips [3] Group 4: Interest Rate Outlook - The certainty of growth and inflation in 2026 will depend on policy expansion, accelerated transition of old and new driving forces, and a sustained low inflation environment [3] - There is potential for further monetary easing, with short-term interest rates likely to decrease, while long-term rates may be influenced by the pace of economic recovery and inflation [3] Group 5: Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond market is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with strong institutional demand but limited new issuance due to many individual bonds being redeemed [4] - The median price of convertible bonds is at a historically high level, suggesting limited room for further valuation expansion, with future returns likely relying more on the performance of underlying stocks [4]