天风策略：2026年A股＞美股＞铜＞黄金＞美债＞人民币＞中债＞美元＞原油

Core Viewpoint - The report outlines a positive outlook for various asset classes in 2026, with a ranking that favors A-shares, followed by US stocks, copper, and gold, while indicating a weaker position for oil and the US dollar [1][3][11]. Macroeconomic Environment Outlook - Fiscal expansion in Europe and the US is expected to support economic growth, with the "Big and Beautiful" plan from Trump likely benefiting the 2026 economy [2][10]. - The US is anticipated to experience mild monetary easing, with the Federal Reserve expected to lower interest rates twice in 2026, while the European Central Bank may maintain its policy rate [2][10]. - Manufacturing is projected to recover from a low point in 2025, driven by fiscal stimulus and easing geopolitical tensions [2][10]. Major Asset Class Outlook - The asset ranking for 2026 is as follows: A-shares > US stocks > copper > gold > US Treasuries (including coupons) > RMB > Chinese bonds > USD > oil [3][11]. - A-shares are expected to benefit from foreign capital inflows due to Fed rate cuts, with a projected increase in earnings and valuation [4][12]. - US stocks are at historical high valuations, with potential for increased volatility in 2026, while earnings growth may be limited [5][12]. - Copper demand is expected to stabilize due to AI data center construction and renewable energy projects, with a recovery in global manufacturing [4][12]. - Gold is anticipated to continue its upward trend due to strong central bank demand and geopolitical risks, despite a significant increase in 2025 [5][12]. Currency and Bond Market Outlook - The US dollar is expected to decline initially and then stabilize, with a limited overall drop due to stronger US economic performance compared to Europe and Japan [13]. - The 2-year US Treasury yield is projected to decline to around 3.1%-3.2%, while the 10-year yield may remain above 4% for most of 2026 [13]. - The RMB is likely to appreciate, supported by a recovering Chinese economy and favorable policies [4][12]. Commodity Outlook - Oil prices are expected to remain under pressure, with a bearish sentiment dominating the market, while copper prices may remain strong due to supply constraints and demand recovery [6][13]. - Silver has seen a significant increase in 2025, and its fundamentals remain strong, although a technical correction may occur [6][13].