政策纾困与转型升级并举 中国乳业迎来破局窗口期

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese dairy industry is entering a critical period for transformation and development, supported by government measures to counteract foreign subsidies that have negatively impacted domestic producers [1][5]. Group 1: Background and Context - The Ministry of Commerce initiated an anti-subsidy investigation into dairy products imported from the EU, responding to requests from the China Dairy Industry Association and the China Dairy Products Industry Association [2]. - The preliminary ruling found that EU dairy products received subsidies that caused substantial harm to the domestic industry, leading to the decision to implement temporary anti-subsidy measures starting December 23, 2025 [1][2]. Group 2: Market Impact - The EU accounted for 23.6% to 34.6% of China's total dairy product imports from 2020 to early 2024, indicating its significant role in the Chinese dairy market [4]. - The domestic dairy industry is currently facing challenges such as overproduction of raw milk and underdevelopment in high-value dairy products like cheese and butter, necessitating continued imports [4][5]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The industry is experiencing widespread losses due to falling raw milk prices, high costs, and external pressures from imported dairy products, which have been exacerbated by EU subsidies [5]. - The China Dairy Products Industry Association highlighted that EU dairy products have entered the Chinese market at unreasonably low prices, harming domestic producers and reducing their capacity utilization [5]. Group 4: Future Opportunities - The anti-subsidy measures are seen as a way to create a fairer competitive environment, allowing domestic producers to strengthen their market position [5][6]. - Companies are encouraged to leverage the current policy window to enhance product lines and processing capabilities, which will help them better compete against imports in the future [6][7]. - The low prices of raw milk currently present an opportunity for processing companies to upgrade and innovate, particularly in high-value and deep-processing dairy products [7].