刘和平：特朗普提前威胁泽连斯基，海湖庄园将上演“鸿门宴”？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dynamics of the upcoming meeting between Ukrainian President Zelensky and U.S. President Trump, highlighting Trump's assertive stance that he holds significant influence over the outcomes of U.S.-Ukraine negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2][3]. Group 1: Trump's Influence and Strategy - Trump is perceived to be asserting that without his approval, Zelensky will gain nothing from the negotiations, indicating his personal control over the situation rather than a purely diplomatic approach [3]. - The article suggests that Trump's involvement in international negotiations often serves dual purposes: to exert U.S. dominance while also seeking personal or familial benefits [2]. Group 2: Negotiation Tactics - In the negotiations regarding the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Trump proposed a tripartite operation involving the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine, each holding one-third of the shares [6]. - Zelensky countered Trump's proposal by suggesting that only the U.S. and Ukraine should operate the plant, offering a 50-50 profit split, which reflects a strategic move to gain favor with the U.S. [6]. Group 3: Responses to Pressure - Zelensky's insistence on involving European leaders in the discussions may be seen as a misstep, as it could undermine the private negotiations Trump prefers [7]. - In response to pressures from both Trump and Putin, Zelensky is considering proposals to transform the Donbas region into a "free economic zone" and is contemplating a public referendum on the "20-point plan" to leverage public opinion against external pressures [10]. Group 4: Putin's Position - Putin's recent comments suggest a willingness to negotiate on territorial exchanges, indicating a shift from a hardline stance to a more flexible approach in the context of the ongoing conflict [9]. - This change in tone from Putin may be aimed at encouraging Trump to exert pressure on Zelensky to fulfill Russia's territorial ambitions [9].