预见2026 | 从差异化收益选择到配置核心 人民币债券不断重塑国际化定位

Core Viewpoint - China's bond market is attracting long-term international capital due to its unique return sources and risk characteristics, maintaining a strong relative appeal even amid global economic and policy divergence [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Appeal - China's bond market continues to offer competitive comprehensive returns, which not only provide yield but also effectively reduce portfolio volatility and enhance the Sharpe ratio [1]. - For USD investors, holding Chinese medium- to short-term bonds after hedging currency risk yields better comprehensive returns than US Treasuries, especially when considering the appreciation potential of the RMB [1][2]. - The low correlation of China's monetary policy with other major economies enhances the attractiveness of its bonds for international investors seeking to optimize risk-return profiles [2]. Group 2: Future Trends - The logic driving foreign capital allocation to Chinese bonds is expected to strengthen, particularly as US fiscal policies increase debt burdens and interest pressures, prompting a reevaluation of reliance on US Treasuries [2]. - If the Federal Reserve begins a rate-cutting cycle in 2026, the narrowing of the China-US interest rate differential will further highlight the relative value of RMB assets [2][5]. Group 3: Market Accessibility - China's bond market has achieved high levels of accessibility in terms of entry, settlement, and currency exchange, which are crucial for attracting foreign investment [3]. - However, structural challenges remain, such as limitations on foreign participation in bond repos and the use of interest rate derivatives, which could hinder large-scale, sustainable allocations by long-term capital [3][4]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To enhance foreign participation, it is suggested to grant foreign institutions treatment closer to that of domestic entities in repos and derivatives, while also improving credit rating recognition and liquidity in the credit bond market [4]. - Increasing policy transparency and addressing structural pain points will help attract a broader range of international investors [4]. Group 5: Market Outlook for 2026 - The bond market in 2026 is expected to be influenced by both internal growth demands and external environmental changes, with a high likelihood of maintaining a loose monetary policy [5][6]. - A potential decline of 20-30 basis points in the central yield level of 10-year government bonds is anticipated, with short-term rates expected to decrease more clearly under a loose monetary policy [6]. - The current yield curve indicates that taking on interest rate risk for term premiums may be more prudent than credit risk, particularly for institutional investors like banks [6]. Group 6: Global Integration - China's bond market is transitioning from a phase of quantitative openness to qualitative integration, becoming increasingly significant within the global financial system [7].