日本央行政策立场谨慎，看空日元之声在2026年持续高涨

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has not led to a sustained appreciation of the yen, with increasing bearish sentiment towards the currency and a consensus that its structural weakness is unlikely to be reversed quickly [1][5]. Exchange Rate Predictions - Analysts from JPMorgan and BNP Paribas predict that the yen may depreciate to around 160 yen per dollar by the end of 2026 due to the persistent disparity in interest rates between the US and Japan, negative real interest rates in Japan, and ongoing capital outflows [1][3]. - JPMorgan's chief forex strategist, Junya Tanaka, has provided a pessimistic forecast of 164 yen per dollar for the end of 2026, citing weak fundamentals for the yen [2][6]. - Fukuoka Financial Group's chief strategist, Tetsu Sasaki, expects the yen to weaken further to 165 yen per dollar by the end of 2026, attributing this to the Bank of Japan's lack of aggressive rate hikes [4][9]. Factors Influencing Yen Weakness - The ongoing capital outflow from Japan, with retail investors favoring overseas assets, is a significant factor pressuring the yen. The net purchases of overseas stocks by Japanese retail investors have remained near a ten-year high of 9.4 trillion yen (approximately 60 billion dollars) [3][8]. - The return of carry trade strategies, where investors borrow low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding currencies, is another obstacle to yen appreciation [2][7]. Market Sentiment and Government Intervention - The market sentiment remains tense, with speculation about potential intervention by the Japanese government to stabilize the yen as it approaches levels that previously triggered official market intervention [10]. - Analysts express skepticism that government intervention alone can reverse the yen's downward trend, emphasizing the need for more substantial fiscal policy changes [5][10].