Will a Santa Claus Rally Set Up a Strong 2026? Here's My Take on the Year-End Window.

分组1 - The Santa Claus rally occurs historically 80% of the time, with an average return of 1.3% during the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January [1][7] - A Santa Claus rally is generally a positive sign for the following year, as the stock market has had a positive year about 70% of the time since 1926 [2][5] - In instances where the Santa Claus rally did not occur, five out of six subsequent years showed negative or below-average returns, indicating a potential downturn [3] 分组2 - Despite the positive implications of a Santa Claus rally, it does not guarantee a clear path for the upcoming year, as evidenced by the bear market following the 2021 rally [4] - The S&P 500 is currently at a higher-than-normal valuation of approximately 30 times trailing earnings, which is 50% higher than the long-term average of around 20 times, suggesting market vulnerability [8]