欧洲：困局中寻找未来之路

Core Viewpoint - Europe is facing unprecedented challenges in 2025, including prolonged impacts from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, changing US-European relations, and ongoing economic stagnation, necessitating a strategic and cognitive rebalancing for the future [13][14][22]. Group 1: European Challenges - The prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict has strained European resources, with countries facing budget crises that limit their ability to support Ukraine effectively [14][15]. - Economic growth in the EU is weak, with only 0.4% growth in 2023, 1% in 2024, and an expected 1.4% in 2025, while major economies like Germany are projected to experience negative growth [16]. - The EU's reliance on Russian energy and markets has severely impacted its economic stability, compounded by increased tariffs from the US on EU products [16]. Group 2: Changing US-European Relations - The US has shifted its stance towards Europe, viewing it as an economic and ideological adversary, which has significant implications for transatlantic relations [17]. - The Trump administration's national security strategy reflects a growing disdain for Europe, suggesting a need for Europe to reassess its dependency on the US for security [17][19]. - The perception of the US as a diminishing ally has prompted European leaders to advocate for greater strategic autonomy, although this effort faces substantial internal and external challenges [18][19]. Group 3: Strategic Autonomy Efforts - European leaders are increasingly calling for reduced dependence on the US, with initiatives like the "Rearm Europe" financing plan aiming to mobilize €800 billion over the next decade for defense [18]. - The EU's commitment to strategic autonomy is complicated by internal divisions, with varying levels of threat perception among member states affecting collective defense spending [20][21]. - The rise of right-wing parties in key EU countries poses a threat to the unity required for effective defense integration and strategic autonomy [21]. Group 4: Need for Rebalancing - Europe must rebalance its relationship with the US to achieve true strategic autonomy, leveraging its economic and technological strengths while reducing military dependency [22]. - A focus on economic development alongside security needs is essential to avoid exacerbating social and political instability within Europe [23]. - The EU's approach to foreign policy must evolve from ideological rigidity to pragmatic cooperation, particularly in its dealings with major powers like China and the US [23].