不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头 ——对话财政部原副部长朱光耀

Economic Growth and Resilience - China's economy is projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan, marking a significant achievement during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a growth rate among the highest globally [1][2] - The economic growth from 2020 to 2025 represents an increase of 40 trillion yuan, equivalent to over 5 trillion USD, comparable to creating the world's third-largest economy [1] Contribution to Global Economy - China's economy accounts for about 17% of the global economy and contributes over 30% to global economic growth annually [2] - The International Monetary Fund has raised its 2025 growth forecast for China to 5%, indicating strong economic performance [2] Key Support Factors - The two major breakthroughs supporting the 140 trillion yuan economy are the rapid development of the digital economy and artificial intelligence, and the robust growth of the green economy [2][3] - China's digital economy has empowered traditional industries, while advancements in artificial intelligence and quantum information have positioned the country among the global leaders in these fields [2] Green Economy Development - From 2012 to 2024, China's energy consumption grew at an average rate of 3.4%, supporting an average economic growth of 6.1%, with a carbon emission intensity reduction of over 35% [3] - China leads globally in renewable energy capacity, with solar panel production at the top for over a decade and a significant share of lithium battery production [3] Future Economic Outlook - The expected actual growth rate for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is between 4.5% and 5%, with contributions from capital and labor inputs, as well as total factor productivity [4] - The nominal growth rate could reach 7% if actual growth of 5% is combined with a 2% inflation rate [4] Macroeconomic Policy - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for proactive macroeconomic policies, including a fiscal deficit rate set at around 4% for 2025 and a local government special debt limit of 4.4 trillion yuan [5][6] - The focus is on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, with monetary policy aimed at addressing the current negative producer price index [6] International Trade and Relations - Despite external challenges, China's foreign trade remains resilient, maintaining its position as the world's largest goods trader for eight consecutive years, with a projected trade volume of 6.16 trillion USD in 2024 [8] - The U.S. tariff policies pose risks to global trade, and China aims to navigate these challenges while promoting high-quality development and enhancing domestic and international economic circulation [7][8] Foreign Investment Environment - China is committed to creating a market-oriented, law-based, and internationalized business environment to attract foreign investment, with ongoing efforts to streamline regulations and enhance protections for foreign enterprises [9] - The focus is on ensuring that foreign companies can operate smoothly in open sectors, with initiatives to improve infrastructure and support services [9] Artificial Intelligence Sector - China is recognized for its potential in the artificial intelligence sector, with significant investment interest from international investors, particularly from Wall Street [11] - The country aims to leverage its advantages in application scenarios, data resources, and infrastructure to foster a competitive AI industry [13]