缺货冲击 2026年智能手机出货量不乐观

Core Insights - The smartphone industry is expected to face a decline in shipment volume in 2026, shifting from a previously projected growth of 0.1% in 2025 to a decrease of 2% due to rising storage costs and supply shortages [1] - The impact of storage shortages will be most severe on mid-tier and lower-tier smartphone brands, while leading brands like Apple and Samsung will experience relatively less impact due to their stronger bargaining power and supply chain capabilities [1] - The overall market is anticipated to experience a "volume reduction and price increase" scenario, prompting brands to adjust their product strategies towards higher-margin models to maintain profitability [2] Group 1 - The global smartphone shipment volume is projected to decline by 2% in 2026, influenced by rising storage costs and supply shortages [1] - Mid-tier and lower-tier smartphone brands will face significant market pressure due to their weaker bargaining power compared to leading brands [1] - Samsung's existing storage capacity positions it favorably in the competitive market, minimizing the impact of storage shortages on its smartphone supply [1] Group 2 - Apple, with an annual production of approximately 80 to 90 million iPhones, has a strong supply chain bargaining power, resulting in a lesser impact from storage shortages [1] - The smartphone industry will likely shift towards higher-priced models to offset rising costs, leading to a reduction in the proportion of lower-margin mid-tier products [2] - The market dynamics will necessitate a strategic shift in sales approaches for all brands, particularly in the mid to low-end smartphone segments [2]