年底行情悬念 “年终彩蛋”被期待 机构都如何看？

Group 1 - The core concept of the "Santa Claus Rally" refers to a seasonal upward trend in the stock market during the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January, attributed to decreased trading activity, year-end portfolio adjustments, and positive seasonal investor sentiment [1][3] - Historical data shows that since 1950, the S&P 500 index has averaged a 1.3% increase during this period, with a positive return rate of 79%, making it a significant event on Wall Street [1][3] - Major technology stocks are expected to lead the market during this year's "Santa Claus Rally," as they have been the core driving force behind the overall upward trend in U.S. stocks this year [1][5] Group 2 - From 2016 to 2024, the U.S. stock market experienced only one decline during the "Santa Claus Rally" period, and despite last year's seasonal rally not materializing, many institutions remain optimistic about this year's performance [2] - The "Santa Claus Rally" is driven by four main factors: reduced trading volume leading to lower volatility, year-end portfolio adjustments by fund managers, increased consumer spending during the holiday season, and the conclusion of tax-loss harvesting by investors [3][4] Group 3 - Institutions advise caution regarding the "Santa Claus Rally," emphasizing that it is not a guaranteed annual occurrence and that relying solely on seasonal patterns for short-term trading may not yield clear long-term benefits [4] - The East Wu Securities overseas research team suggests that while a short-term rally may occur in the U.S. stock market, investors should maintain a cautious stance regarding Hong Kong stocks due to potential volatility from upcoming events [5][6] Group 4 - The domestic market is also seeing discussions around the "cross-year rally" and "spring excitement," with institutions viewing these as investment opportunities as the year-end approaches [7] - Analysts from Galaxy Securities and other firms highlight the potential for a small rally around the New Year, driven by expected policy initiatives and increased institutional investment in major indices [7][8]