Core Insights - Gold reached a historic high of $4540 per ounce on December 26, 2025, closing at $4533.34, with a weekly increase of 4.49% and a daily rise of 1.19% [1] - In 2025, gold was one of the best-performing assets globally, with an annual increase exceeding 70%, while the S&P 500 index only rose about 17% [2] - The strong upward trend in gold prices is driven by safe-haven inflows and expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve restarted its easing cycle in September 2025, cutting rates by 25 basis points, followed by another similar cut in October [2] - Market expectations for a third consecutive rate cut in December increased due to signs of economic weakness and dovish signals from key policymakers [2] - There is an anticipated additional easing space of 60 basis points in 2026, equivalent to two potential 25 basis point cuts and a possible third cut [2] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern unrest, have significantly contributed to the rise in gold prices, reinforcing its status as a safe-haven asset [2] - Increased tensions between India and Pakistan, along with the ongoing civil war in Sudan, are also influencing gold's appeal [2] Central Bank Activities - Central banks are diversifying their reserves by accumulating gold, with China being a consistent buyer since Trump's election [3] - The Reserve Bank of India has increased its gold reserves due to rising import price pressures, along with several emerging market central banks like Kazakhstan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan joining this trend [3] - In the first three quarters of 2025, global central banks net purchased 634 tons of gold, significantly above the average levels prior to 2022, providing strong support for gold prices [3] Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Gold prices have maintained a bullish trend, consistently reaching new highs and surpassing the $4500 per ounce mark [4] - There are signs of waning bullish momentum, indicating a potential technical correction in the near future [4] - The relative strength index remains above the neutral level of 50, but has breached the overbought threshold of 70, suggesting increased short-term correction risks [4] Price Levels and Support/Resistance - The key resistance level for gold is set at $4600 per ounce, which, if surpassed, could trigger a stronger upward trend by the end of 2025 [5] - A short-term support level is identified at $4300 per ounce, which is crucial if a technical correction occurs [5] - A strong support level is at $4200 per ounce, near the 50-period simple moving average, which is critical for maintaining the current bullish trend [5]
国际黄金火力全开 最新行情分析及预测
Jin Tou Wang·2025-12-28 00:45