智通财经网·2025-12-28 00:46Core Viewpoint - The U.S. real estate market is not experiencing a recovery cycle despite significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024-2025, remaining in a "weak supply and demand" state [1][2][3]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The demand side is negatively impacted by high housing prices, elevated mortgage rates, and an affordability crisis, leading to a decline in home buying and mortgage demand, with 2025 new and existing home sales expected to be lower than in 2024 [3][4]. - On the supply side, the existing home market is constrained by a "lock-in effect," resulting in tight inventory, while new home supply is affected by rising material tariffs and interest rate fluctuations, keeping U.S. housing prices elevated [3][4]. Group 2: Future Outlook and Policy Implications - As the 2026 U.S. midterm elections approach, the potential for "Trump housing reform" is anticipated, which may focus on reducing mortgage costs, activating supply markets, and further interest rate cuts, including proposals to extend mortgage terms and make mortgage rates transferable [1][5]. - However, significant interest rate cuts may not effectively translate to lower mortgage rates due to legislative and judicial constraints, along with tariff risk premiums and construction cycle delays, making it difficult for the real estate supply-demand structure to reverse in the short term [2][5]. Group 3: Indicators for Monitoring the Real Estate Cycle - To observe the U.S. real estate cycle, monitoring the spread between current mortgage rates and existing mortgage rates is crucial, with historical data indicating that a spread of 90-100 basis points, corresponding to around 5% mortgage rates, could signal the start of a real estate cycle [6].