下游需求端疲软态势难改观 锡价短期冲高回落走势

Group 1 - As of December 26, 2025, the main contract for Shanghai tin futures closed at 338,550 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase in open interest of 18,475 contracts [1] - During the week of December 22-26, the Shanghai tin futures opened at 344,880 CNY/ton, reached a high of 349,130 CNY/ton, and a low of 328,290 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly change of -0.05% [1] Group 2 - On December 25, the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded 8,153 tons of tin warehouse receipts, a decrease of 178 tons from the previous trading day; over the past week, warehouse receipts increased by 551 tons, a growth rate of 7.25% [2] - The average price of Mysteel 1 tin ingots on December 25 was 332,750 CNY/ton, down 5,750 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [2] - As of December 25, the top 20 futures companies in Shanghai held a total of 56,300 long positions and 56,500 short positions, resulting in a net position of -213 contracts, an increase of 3,293 contracts compared to the previous day [2] Group 3 - According to Jinrui Futures, the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar is progressing, but the incremental increase is limited; in Indonesia, the transaction volume on JFX and ICDX was 4,420 tons as of December 23 [4] - Domestic tin supply remains tight, with stable production expected from smelters; traditional demand in consumer electronics is weak, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude from downstream buyers [4] - Emerging sectors such as semiconductors and AI servers provide some structural support for prices, but overall tin prices are expected to continue fluctuating at high levels due to tight raw material supply and weak downstream demand [4]