Group 1: Economic Outlook - The year 2026 is expected to be a pivotal year for China's economy, showcasing strategic initiatives and a true awakening of stock market value [1] - The actual GDP growth rate is projected to be between 4.8% and 4.9%, with nominal GDP expected to rise to around 4.5% compared to 2025 [1] - The economic landscape is characterized by a structural differentiation where consumption stabilizes, exports provide a reliable growth force, and investment may act as a drag [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Features - The core features of the macro economy in 2026 will include structural differentiation and stable operation under policy consistency [2] - Retail sales growth is expected to remain around 4%, while actual resident consumption growth, including services, may reach 4.5% to 5% [2] - Export growth is anticipated to be around 5%, supported by a mild recovery in global industrial production [2] Group 3: Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to act as a stabilizer rather than a strong stimulus, with a slight increase in the narrow deficit ratio to 4.2% to 4.3% [3] - Government debt is projected to increase by approximately 1 to 1.5 trillion yuan, with fiscal spending growth set at around 5% [3] - The approach aims to support economic transformation while maintaining sustainability and flexibility in policy [3] Group 4: Industry Focus - Midstream Manufacturing - Midstream manufacturing is identified as the most certain and verifiable sector in the next 3 to 6 months, driven by improved corporate profitability, global demand, and supportive industrial policies [4] - Export gross margins for midstream manufacturing companies have systematically exceeded domestic margins for the first time, indicating higher value-added profits from exports [4] - The focus of supply-side structural reforms has shifted towards midstream manufacturing, optimizing the competitive ecology and profitability of the sector [4] Group 5: Market Outlook - The A-share market in 2026 is expected to shift from valuation repair to profit-driven growth and deep recognition of allocation value [5] - Market volatility has systematically decreased, with fewer trading days experiencing significant index pullbacks, enhancing long-term asset allocation value [6] - Corporate profit improvements are anticipated, with nominal GDP expected to rise from 4.0% in 2025 to 4.5% in 2026, indicating a healthier foundation for market growth [6] Group 6: New Normal - The economic landscape in 2026 will emphasize quality, structure, and sustainability, moving towards a "new normal" [7]
预见2026 | 从“轴中”稳定到全球跃迁 产业新局持续凸显资本市场价值
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-12-28 02:44