“反内卷”推动价格回稳，光伏企业自救提速

Core Insights - The photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing industry is experiencing a cyclical low, with "anti-involution" becoming a core consensus and transformation path for the entire industry. Prices in the main PV supply chain are gradually stabilizing and even improving in the second half of 2025, driven by self-regulation and production cuts by companies [1][2]. Price Stabilization and Market Dynamics - Since July, multiple policy measures have been implemented to guide the PV industry towards a high-quality development phase focused on technological innovation. Core material prices, such as silicon, have shown signs of recovery, with the price of polysilicon contracts doubling since the end of June. The price of monocrystalline silicon wafers has increased by approximately 40% compared to early Q3 [2][3]. - The average price of N-type polysilicon has risen by about 54% compared to the end of Q2, indicating a significant upward trend in prices due to supply contraction, demand recovery, and rising costs [2][3]. Industry Self-Rescue and Transformation - The industry is undergoing a bifurcation, where technologically advanced companies are recovering profitability, while less efficient firms are exiting the market. Companies are focusing on cost control and improving production efficiency as part of their self-rescue strategies [4][5]. - Leading firms like LONGi Green Energy and Tongwei Co. are enhancing their operational capabilities through technological innovation and product upgrades, shifting the focus from price competition to value competition [4][5]. Financial Performance and Recovery Indicators - The financial performance of PV manufacturers is showing signs of improvement, with 14 out of 21 listed companies in the main PV supply chain reporting positive net profit growth in Q3. For instance, Daqo New Energy reported a 24.75% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q3, with a net profit turnaround [5][6]. - The stabilization of prices in the supply chain has been a key factor in reducing losses for manufacturers, particularly in the upstream silicon and wafer segments, where price increases have significantly improved gross margins [6]. Future Outlook and Challenges - The current recovery in the PV industry is still fragile, with terminal demand not fully restored and overcapacity issues remaining unresolved. The market is expected to face challenges as the "anti-involution" governance enters a critical phase, with 2026 being a pivotal year for the industry [1][6].