Would You Buy the SpaceX IPO?

Core Viewpoint - SpaceX is planning to go public in 2026 with a potential valuation of $1.5 trillion, which would make it the largest IPO in history [1][2]. Company Overview - SpaceX is closely associated with Elon Musk and is known for its rocket launches, with about 70% of its revenue coming from Starlink, a satellite internet service [3][4]. - Starlink has grown significantly, reaching over 8 million subscribers, up from just 1 million a few years ago, indicating its rapid expansion as a global telecom platform [4]. Financial Projections - SpaceX's revenue was estimated at $1.4 billion in 2020, with a projected increase to $15.5 billion by 2025, reflecting a substantial growth trajectory [8]. - The company aims for a public market valuation of $1.5 trillion, which would imply a trading multiple of approximately 100 times sales based on current revenue estimates [9]. Market Comparisons - The closest comparable public company is Rocket Lab, which has a market cap of about $30.3 billion, highlighting the significant scale difference between SpaceX and its competitors [5]. Business Model Insights - SpaceX's business model includes three main components: rocket launches for NASA and other payloads, revenue from Starlink, and the development of reusable rockets, which could drastically reduce launch costs from $1,500 per kilogram to under $100 per kilogram [7][9]. - The success of the fully reusable Starship rocket is critical for SpaceX's future, as it could enable the company to carry larger payloads and enhance its competitive edge [8]. Investment Sentiment - Analysts express skepticism about the high valuation, suggesting that a $1.5 trillion valuation may not be justified based on current revenue and growth trends [10]. - There is a consensus that potential investors should consider waiting for a better entry point post-IPO, as initial hype may inflate the stock price temporarily [10][11].