崔东树：2026年年初新能源电池需求将环比大幅下降，电池生产企业预计将减产休假对应波动

Core Insights - The automotive market performance at the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is in line with expectations, with a strong growth rate in the first three quarters of the year, leading to a noticeable deceleration in the fourth quarter [1] - Demand for new energy lithium batteries is expected to be significantly weak in the fourth quarter, resulting in reduced production plans and increased holiday breaks for upstream suppliers in early 2026 [2] Group 1 - The profit margin for non-ferrous mining in the upstream materials sector reached 30% from January to November, which is seven times that of the automotive industry, indicating a significant profit imbalance within the industry [1] - A stable price and a reasonable supply-demand balance are crucial for the development of the industry, as profit imbalances can negatively impact growth [1] Group 2 - In early 2026, domestic demand for new energy lithium batteries is expected to decline significantly compared to the fourth quarter, with battery manufacturers planning to reduce production in response to demand fluctuations [2] - The decline in demand is attributed to several factors, including a policy adjustment on vehicle purchase tax affecting new energy passenger vehicles, which is expected to see a decrease in sales of at least 30% compared to the fourth quarter [2] - The commercial vehicle segment is also anticipated to face a significant drop in demand after a year-end rush for subsidies and tax exemptions [2] - Exports of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to remain strong, but this will not significantly boost demand for batteries from independent suppliers [2] - The U.S. energy storage demand is not expected to provide a noticeable boost to domestic battery exports, with a sharp decline in battery exports to the U.S. anticipated in 2025 [2] - Domestic energy storage bidding prices are significantly below 300 yuan per kilowatt-hour, leading to weak demand for price increases, and automotive batteries cannot absorb the cost losses from energy storage [2]