乘联分会秘书长崔东树：2026年年初新能源电池需求将环比今年4季度大幅下降

Core Viewpoint - The demand for domestic new energy lithium batteries is expected to significantly decline in early 2026 compared to Q4 2025, leading to production cuts by battery manufacturers in response to fluctuating demand [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Demand - The adjustment of vehicle purchase tax policies is anticipated to cause a decrease of at least 30% in new energy passenger vehicle sales in early 2026 compared to Q4 2025 [1] - Following the year-end rush for subsidies and tax exemptions, new energy commercial vehicles are also expected to face a substantial decline in demand in early 2026 [1] - Although exports of new energy passenger vehicles are projected to remain strong in early 2026, the impact on independent battery suppliers' demand will be minimal [1] Group 2: Export and Pricing Dynamics - The demand for domestic battery exports to the U.S. is not expected to show significant growth, with a sharp decline in battery exports to the U.S. anticipated in 2025 [1] - The domestic energy storage bidding prices are significantly below 300 yuan per kilowatt-hour, leading to weakened demand for price increases, and vehicle batteries cannot absorb the losses incurred in energy storage [1]