智通财经网·2025-12-28 05:48Core Viewpoint - The demand for new energy lithium batteries is expected to decline significantly in early 2026, influenced by policy adjustments and market dynamics, leading to production cuts and reduced profitability for upstream materials [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The automotive market's performance at the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is in line with expectations, with a strong growth rate in the first three quarters of the year, but a noticeable slowdown in the fourth quarter [1]. - The profit margin in the non-ferrous mining sector reached 30% from January to November, which is seven times that of the automotive industry, indicating a significant profit imbalance within the supply chain [1]. - The production of new energy passenger vehicles in November was 7,286 million units, reflecting a 23% year-on-year increase, while retail sales grew only 13% [3][7]. Group 2: Future Demand Projections - The demand for lithium batteries is projected to drop sharply in early 2026, with new energy passenger vehicle sales expected to decline by at least 30% compared to the fourth quarter due to changes in vehicle purchase tax policies [2][4]. - The export of new energy passenger vehicles is expected to remain strong in early 2026, primarily driven by BYD, but this will not significantly boost demand for independent battery suppliers [4][14]. - The domestic retail demand for lithium batteries showed signs of weakness, with only 5,710 million units sold in November, marking a notable decline in demand [10][11]. Group 3: Export Dynamics - The export of lithium batteries has been robust, with a significant contribution from BYD, which produces its own batteries, while other suppliers rely on commercial vehicle demand [4][14]. - China's lithium battery exports to the EU account for approximately 40% of the total, while exports to the US have sharply declined, with a 45% drop in value from $1.87 billion to $1.04 billion [21][23]. - The overall export structure is shifting, with a notable decrease in shipments to the US, reflecting a broader trend of declining demand in that market [23][25].