“妖镍”井喷：除了矿端扰动，还有没有需求新故事？

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have experienced significant volatility recently, with a sharp increase following a period of decline, driven by changes in Indonesian policy and market speculation [2][4][5]. Supply Disruption - Nickel is categorized into primary and recycled nickel, with electrolytic nickel being a key trading product [3]. - The price of electrolytic nickel has been on a downward trend due to weak downstream demand, particularly from the stainless steel sector, which accounts for over 70% of nickel consumption [3][6]. - Historical data shows that nickel prices can fluctuate dramatically, with a notable decline of over 60% from March 2022 to December 2022 [3]. - Recent policy changes in Indonesia, the largest nickel supplier, aim to reduce nickel ore production targets significantly, potentially leading to a tighter global nickel market by 2026 [4][5]. Demand Challenges - The demand for electrolytic nickel remains weak, particularly in the stainless steel sector, which is closely tied to macroeconomic factors like real estate and infrastructure development [6][7]. - Despite some support from government policies, actual improvements in demand are expected to take time, with recent data indicating a decline in stainless steel production [6][7]. - Other sectors like alloy and electroplating have stable demand, but their impact on overall nickel consumption is limited [7]. Future Outlook - Some analysts remain optimistic about nickel prices in the long term, citing potential increases in demand from the electric vehicle battery sector, particularly with the development of solid-state batteries [8][9]. - However, the significant growth in demand from the new energy sector is not expected to materialize until around 2030, limiting short-term price support [9]. - The interplay between Indonesian policy and global supply-demand dynamics will be crucial in determining future nickel price movements [9][10].