Down 73% From All-Time High, Is The Trade Desk Stock a Buy?

Core Viewpoint - The Trade Desk has experienced significant volatility in its stock price, reflecting broader market dynamics and company-specific challenges, particularly in the context of decelerating growth in the advertising sector [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The Trade Desk's stock peaked in late 2024 but has since fallen by more than two-thirds, influenced by a broader reset in growth stocks and company-specific disappointments [2]. - Despite the stock's decline, the valuation remains high, raising questions about the potential for future growth and the margin for error in current valuations [3][9]. Group 2: Business Performance - The Trade Desk reported third-quarter revenue of $739 million, representing an 18% year-over-year increase, with a 22% growth rate when excluding political ad spending from the previous year [5]. - Profitability remains strong, with a net income of $116 million and a net income margin of 16%, alongside an adjusted EBITDA of $317 million, equating to a 43% margin [6]. - Customer retention has been robust, with over 95% of customers retained for eleven consecutive years [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Management has guided for at least $840 million in revenue for Q4 2025, indicating a projected year-over-year growth of approximately 13% [7]. - There is speculation that internet-connected TV (CTV) could provide a new avenue for growth as shareholders seek a reacceleration in The Trade Desk's business [8][10].