投行保代大迁徙，“去产能”仍在路上

Core Viewpoint - The investment banking industry in China is experiencing a structural adjustment, with a notable shift of professionals moving towards the real economy, despite a recovery in A-share IPOs and a surge in Hong Kong listings. The industry is still in a "clearing" phase, with a decrease in the number of licensed representatives and a mismatch in talent supply and demand [1][9][10]. Group 1: Industry Trends - As of December 27, the total number of licensed representatives in the industry has decreased to 8,493, down from 8,800 at the beginning of the year, reflecting ongoing capacity reduction [1][9]. - The demand for investment banking professionals with industry backgrounds is increasing, particularly for mergers and acquisitions and overseas listings, indicating a shift from project executors to strategic participants [1][9]. - The industry is witnessing a paradox of simultaneous layoffs and aggressive recruitment, highlighting a structural imbalance in talent supply and demand [1][9][10]. Group 2: Talent Migration - A significant trend in 2025 is the migration of experienced investment bankers to the real economy, with many leaving the brokerage system entirely [1][10]. - The departure of talent is attributed to a prolonged period of zero IPO projects and a reevaluation of career value, with increased risks and pressures in the investment banking sector [10][11]. - Since 2025, nearly 100 investment banking professionals have transitioned to listed companies, with a notable increase in movement compared to 2024 [11][12]. Group 3: Recruitment and Structural Changes - Despite overall layoffs, a "war for talent" is occurring, with firms like Guolian Minsheng Securities launching large-scale recruitment initiatives to build elite teams [13][14]. - Some firms are focusing on vertical integration within specific regions and industries, aiming to serve local enterprises more effectively [13][14]. - The Hong Kong market is becoming a secondary battleground for investment banks, with many firms encouraging clients to list there, as A+H share projects are projected to contribute significantly to Hong Kong's IPO market [14][15]. Group 4: Future Landscape of Investment Banking - The investment banking landscape is expected to evolve into a model characterized by headquarter concentration and regional specialization, with firms needing to adapt to changing market demands [15][16]. - The net income of listed securities firms' investment banking divisions reached 25.2 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.46%, indicating a recovery in the sector [7][15]. - The competition is intensifying, with firms exploring differentiated and specialized development paths to capture growth opportunities in niche markets [16].