西部证券：A股估值扩张 有色金属行业领涨

Group 1 - The overall valuation of A-shares has expanded this week, with the non-ferrous metal industry leading the gains due to global liquidity and tight supply, resulting in historical highs for gold, silver, copper, and platinum prices [1][7] - The current overall PB (LF) of the non-ferrous metal industry is at the historical 84.4 percentile, with industrial metals, precious metals, and minor metals at 89.1%, 77.1%, and 69.3% respectively, indicating that valuations are not at extreme levels [1][7] - The relative PE (TTM) for computing infrastructure, excluding operators and resource categories, increased from 4.28 times last week to 4.39 times this week, while the relative PB (LF) rose from 4.46 times to 4.58 times [1][7] Group 2 - From a static PE (TTM) perspective, major industries such as consumer discretionary, consumer staples, midstream manufacturing, cyclical, and midstream materials have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, with consumer discretionary and midstream manufacturing exceeding the 90th percentile [2][8] - In terms of PB (LF), resource, TMT, cyclical, and midstream manufacturing industries have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, while consumer discretionary, financial services, services, consumer staples, and consumer discretionary have absolute and relative valuations below the historical median, with consumer staples and consumer discretionary below the 10th percentile [2][8] - The current comparison of odds (PB historical percentile) and win rates (ROE historical percentile) indicates that industries such as agriculture, public utilities, and non-bank financials exhibit characteristics of low valuation and high profitability [2][8] Group 3 - The comparison of odds (full dynamic PE) and win rates (25-26 consensus expected net profit compound growth rate) shows that industries like building materials, electrical equipment, media, and defense have both low valuations and high performance growth [3][9] - The relative attractiveness of the stock market compared to the bond market has decreased this week, with the A-share non-financial ERP dropping from 0.89% to 0.81%, and the stock-bond yield difference declining from -0.05% to -0.14% [3][9] - The full dynamic ERP for key non-financial companies in A-shares decreased from 2.8% to 2.68% this week [3][9]