黄金、白银再刷新高，贵金属涨势能否跨年？

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market is experiencing a historic surge, with gold and silver prices reaching all-time highs, driven by factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, trade policies, and structural supply-demand imbalances [1][4][5]. Group 1: Price Movements - On December 26, 2025, spot gold prices reached a peak of $4549.9 per ounce, while silver hit $79.4 per ounce, marking an annual increase of over 174% for silver [1][2]. - Year-to-date, COMEX gold futures and London spot gold prices have both risen by more than 70% [2]. - Domestic markets also saw significant increases, with Shanghai gold futures up 62% and silver futures up over 157% [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The surge in precious metals is attributed to a combination of factors, including the Fed's interest rate cuts, which have created a liquidity-friendly environment, and a persistent supply-demand imbalance in the silver market [4][5]. - Silver has been in a supply deficit for five consecutive years, with industrial demand in sectors like photovoltaics and electronics providing additional support for prices [5]. Group 3: Regulatory Responses - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted trading parameters for gold and silver futures to mitigate excessive speculation and maintain market stability [3]. - The new trading limits include a 15% price fluctuation cap and increased margin requirements [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rise in 2026, potentially reaching $5000 per ounce, although the growth rate may slow to 10%-15% due to previous price increases [7]. - The market is expected to experience increased volatility as it reacts to U.S. monetary policy and economic conditions [7]. - There are warnings about the risks associated with high volatility in silver prices and the potential for profit-taking [7].