国家终于出手！2026年楼市将迎两大变局，你准备好了吗？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is transitioning from a volatile cycle to a deep adjustment phase, driven by national policies aimed at stabilizing the market, preventing risks, optimizing supply, and promoting transformation, marking a new development stage for the industry [1] Policy Changes - The policy shift is moving from "short-term control" to "long-term foundation," establishing a framework for precise supply-demand matching. The new policies focus on "controlling increment, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply" [3] - Demand-side policies are becoming more precise, with measures such as reforming the provident fund system and removing unreasonable housing consumption restrictions, leading to a significant reduction in home purchase costs for first-time buyers [3] - On the supply side, policies are addressing core market pain points, allowing local governments to implement tailored strategies based on inventory levels, with a focus on converting existing housing into affordable housing in high-inventory cities [4] Market Dynamics - The market is shifting from "universal price increases" to "structural differentiation," characterized by a resilient core and pressured periphery. This change is driven by population movement, industrial support, and inventory structure differences [6] - National new housing sales area is projected to decline by 5% in 2026, with significant disparities between cities. Core areas in first-tier cities are expected to maintain stable prices, while third and fourth-tier cities face significant pressure [6][8] - The product and demand sides are also experiencing differentiation, with a growing preference for high-quality housing and an increase in the proportion of improvement demand, which now accounts for 40% of the market [8] Implications for Stakeholders - For homebuyers, the era of blind purchasing is over, and decision-making should prioritize value. First-time buyers are encouraged to focus on well-located properties with good amenities, while improvement buyers should seek high-quality housing [9] - Real estate companies must adapt to a new environment where high leverage and rapid turnover are no longer sustainable. Leading firms are focusing on core urban areas and enhancing product quality, while smaller firms need to clear out excess inventory to survive [10] - The adjustment in the real estate market is not a short-term pain but a necessary transition towards optimizing existing stock, with policies supporting market stability and promoting high-quality development [11]