广发宏观：贵金属和有色金属继续上行背后

Group 1 - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals continue to rise, with COMEX silver and copper increasing by 18.0% and 6.2% respectively from December 19 to December 26, and annual increases of approximately 172% and 45% [1][2] - The rise in precious metals and non-ferrous metals is supported by a declining dollar cycle, changes in global liquidity, and increased demand from new industries such as renewable energy and electric vehicles [2][3] - Supply growth is constrained due to geopolitical risks, shrinking mine output, and rising ESG costs [3] Group 2 - The acceleration in silver and copper prices in December is attributed to the U.S. releasing a new critical minerals list, which includes these metals, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [4] - Concerns regarding U.S. tax policies under the Trump administration have also influenced copper prices, while limited supply of silver for delivery has added upward pressure on prices [4] - The narrative surrounding precious and non-ferrous metals is expected to continue, with a focus on the weakening dollar and the restructuring of global supply chains [5] Group 3 - Global stock markets have shown a strong performance, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices rising by 1.22% and 1.40% respectively, supported by expectations of a soft landing for the U.S. economy [6][7] - Commodity prices are influenced by low inventory levels and tight supply, with silver and copper experiencing significant price increases [8] - The bond market has shown mild fluctuations, with U.S. Treasury yields declining slightly, reinforcing expectations of continued liquidity [9] Group 4 - The Chinese asset market is seeing a revival in technology narratives, with significant gains in sectors related to precious metals and new energy [10][12] - The A-share market has shown a notable increase, with the overall index rising by 2.78% and a significant uptick in trading volume [10] - Valuation metrics indicate a divergence in performance between growth and value stocks, with growth sectors leading the market [12] Group 5 - The U.S. economy continues to show signs of a soft landing, with Q3 GDP growth exceeding expectations at an annualized rate of 4.3% [13][14] - Consumer spending and net exports have been key contributors to GDP growth, while inflation remains a concern [15] - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates remains cautious, with ongoing discussions about the timing and extent of future rate cuts [18]