中信建投：人民币升值大趋势并未结束

Core Viewpoint - The rapid appreciation of the RMB is significantly influenced by currency settlement, similar to the situation in July-August this year. The previous three years of bearish sentiment towards the RMB and bullish sentiment towards the USD have led to capital being trapped overseas. This year, as US assets weaken and Chinese assets strengthen, this trapped capital is reversing through currency settlement, driving the RMB's appreciation. The trend of RMB appreciation is expected to continue, with a high probability of breaking the 7 mark, although short-term pressures from currency settlement will ease after the settlement window closes [1][2][3]. Group 1 - The RMB's appreciation this year is a reversal of the depreciation experienced over the past three years, which was largely unexpected by the market. The RMB has approached the 7 mark against the USD [5][30]. - The depreciation of the RMB in previous years was primarily due to the stronger performance of US assets from 2022 to 2024, driven by significant fiscal stimulus and an AI industrial revolution in the US, while other major economies struggled with high inflation [6][31]. - The second reason for the RMB's depreciation was the persistent weakness in China's real estate sector, which suppressed domestic demand and led to a long-term bearish narrative around the economy [7][8][32]. Group 2 - By 2025, the factors that previously led to the RMB's weakness are expected to reverse. The USD is projected to weaken against all major currencies, indicating a decline in global confidence in US assets [10][35]. - The negative impact of the real estate sector on the economy is expected to stabilize by 2025, contributing to a more favorable outlook for the RMB [10][35]. - The strong performance of Chinese exports and the emergence of technological advantages are expected to further enhance the RMB's appreciation momentum [10][35]. Group 3 - The reversal of depreciation expectations is linked to the RMB starting to price in "Chinese advantages," particularly in technology and manufacturing [38][41]. - In 2025, significant changes in asset performance are anticipated, with precious metals and Chinese tech stocks expected to outperform other major assets, reflecting a shift in global economic dynamics [39][40]. - The weakening of the USD is attributed to concerns over US credit and technology, while the RMB's strength is supported by China's robust manufacturing capabilities and the resilience of its supply chains [16][41]. Group 4 - The future outlook for the RMB suggests a systematic re-evaluation of its exchange rate amid the construction of a new global order, driven by China's role in the global manufacturing system and technological leadership [44][46]. - The RMB is expected to undergo a second re-evaluation as it moves away from the negative impacts of the "old economy," with a focus on balancing domestic demand [47]. - In the short term, the RMB should maintain moderate stability, as uncertainties in global conditions and the domestic economy persist [22][27][48].