招商策略：一轮“跨年+春季”行情有望持续演绎

Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing a "cross-year + spring" rally, driven by significant institutional investment in A500 ETF and other broad-based products, which brings stable incremental capital to the market. The continuous appreciation of the offshore RMB is expected to attract foreign capital back to the Chinese market, further improving the liquidity situation [1][2][21]. Fund Flows and Market Dynamics - Major institutional investors are increasing their holdings in A500 ETF, contributing to stable incremental capital in the market. Despite the large net subscriptions of A500 ETF potentially being influenced by quarter-end dynamics, the impact on liquidity is considered limited. Following the surge in A500 subscriptions, financing capital has also seen accelerated net inflows [2][6][21]. - In the first four trading days, financing capital saw a net inflow of 413.4 billion yuan, while new equity public funds increased by 100.4 million units, up by 31.9 million units from the previous period. The net inflow from ETF subscriptions reached 330.5 billion yuan [4][42][51]. Sector and Industry Focus - The market is likely to focus on blue-chip indices represented by the CSI 300 and SSE 50, with an emphasis on cyclical sectors. Key sectors to watch include industrial metals, non-bank financials, and hotel aviation, as well as the new energy industry chain and semiconductor sectors [2][7][22]. - Recent price increases have been concentrated in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, crude oil, chemicals, and new energy. For instance, platinum prices rose by 32.92%, silver by 14.38%, and nickel by 9.25% due to global liquidity easing and geopolitical tensions [22][40]. Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, attributed to the offshore RMB breaking the 7.0 mark, creating a 15-month high, alongside expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which has led to improved market liquidity. The central bank's commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy has also stabilized market expectations regarding future liquidity [3][28]. - The three major indices have broken through and stabilized above the 60-day moving average, forming a bullish arrangement, providing an opportunity for positioning ahead of the cross-year rally [3][28]. Investment Opportunities - The ongoing net inflow into A500 ETF reinforces a structural market rally, with significant capital flowing into high-weighted industries such as electronics, power equipment, and banking, which collectively account for over 45% of the index weight [12][17]. - The anticipated launch of options for A500 ETF in 2026 is expected to attract more capital, as historical data suggests that once an ETF is selected as an options underlying, its shares typically see a 40% to 60% increase in the short term [15][21]. Conclusion - The current market is gradually accumulating upward momentum, with a sustained "cross-year + spring" rally expected to continue. The focus remains on the inflow of incremental capital, the performance of cyclical sectors, and the potential for foreign capital to return to the Chinese market [6][26][21].