恒越基金吴海宁：把握科技轮动 锚定高景气赛道机遇

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment strategies of Wu Haining, a fund manager at Hengyue Fund, focusing on capturing opportunities in the technology sector amidst rapid shifts in sub-sector hotspots [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy and Performance - Wu Haining's management of Hengyue Advantage Select has yielded a one-year return of 142.56%, ranking sixth among similar funds, attributed to effective control over the rotation of high-growth technology sectors [2]. - In Q1, the fund primarily invested in smart driving, domestic computing power, and the Apple supply chain, with a notable increase in AI computing targets [2]. - By Q2, the fund reduced its holdings in smart driving due to price pressures and increased investments in the PCB sector and upstream materials, while also positioning in sectors like military, gaming, and new energy that showed signs of recovery [2]. - In Q3, the focus remained on AI computing, with some profit-taking on targets that had reached their goals, and an increased allocation to the storage sector due to a price increase cycle starting in September [2]. - For Q4, the emphasis shifted to energy storage and domestic semiconductor equipment, with a long-term positive outlook on the North American AI computing industry chain [2]. Group 2: Market Outlook for 2026 - Wu Haining anticipates continued opportunities in 2026, with liquidity being a key factor as major economies are likely to remain in a rate-cutting cycle, leading to a relatively loose funding environment [4]. - The AI industry is expected to be in its early stages, with core companies in the supply chain showing high earnings growth certainty, particularly monitoring Alibaba's AI capital expenditures and model advancements [4]. - The investment focus for 2026 includes energy storage, storage chips, AI computing, semiconductor equipment materials, and lithium solid-state batteries, along with globally competitive companies expanding in international markets [4]. - The stock selection logic will involve assessing industry growth potential and focusing on companies with high earnings elasticity, maintaining a core of familiar mid-to-long-term investments while adding short-term elastic stocks to enhance returns [4]. Group 3: Specific Investment Directions - The demand for energy storage is expected to grow significantly, with predictions of domestic shortages and price increases in 2026, while the economic viability of independent storage in China is becoming evident [5]. - The storage chip sector is entering a price increase cycle, driven by AI's demand for data storage, with AI video generation requiring significantly more storage than text or image generation [6]. - Domestic production capabilities for storage chips have reached international standards, and the etching equipment necessary for chip production is expected to benefit from the ongoing upcycle in the industry [6].