中信证券2025年十大预测对了几个

Economic Growth - The economy is expected to achieve a growth rate of around 5%, with nominal and real growth rates converging [2][20] - Actual growth is showing a "front high and back low" pattern rather than a "U-shaped" recovery [20] Fiscal Policy - The broad fiscal expenditure is better than last year, with the deficit rate raised to 4% and a debt relief plan of 10 trillion yuan to ease local fiscal pressure [3][4] - The government report confirms a deficit of 5.66 trillion yuan and a debt replacement scale of 10 trillion yuan, with significant increases in education and social security spending [4][21] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains moderately loose, with potential for more significant rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions compared to 2024 [5][22] - A 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement cut in May released approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, and the yuan appreciated instead of depreciating [5][22] Credit Cycle - M1 growth turned positive, reaching 4.9% in November, but the social financing growth did not follow the predicted "two ends low, middle high" pattern [7][24] - The actual social financing growth showed a "front high and steady" trend, with an 8.5% growth in November [24] International Relations - Economic disturbances primarily stem from U.S.-China relations, but macro policies have effectively mitigated impacts, with increasing pragmatism in China-Europe relations [8][25] - Cooperation among global southern countries is gaining momentum, evidenced by various agreements and initiatives [8][25] Exchange Rate - The prediction of the yuan remaining in a weak range of 7.3-7.5 was completely incorrect, as the yuan appreciated throughout the year due to strong economic resilience and unexpected export performance [10][27] Export Situation - External demand slowdown and tariff pressures led to a negative export growth in October, but overall performance was stronger than expected, with a 5.4% growth from January to November [12][29] Real Estate Market - Core areas in first-tier cities have stabilized, and new first-tier cities are expected to stop declining by mid-2025, although recent data shows some instability in housing prices [13][31] Domestic Demand Expansion - Policies aimed at boosting consumption and improving livelihoods are in place, but the actual growth in retail sales fell short of the 5% target, with a total growth of 4.0% from January to November [15][32] State-Owned Enterprise Reform - The implementation of market value assessments and increased mergers and acquisitions led by state-owned enterprises has been confirmed, with significant investments in traditional and emerging industries [16][33]