价格狂飙！一盎司比一桶原油还贵 马斯克：这可不好！

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged dramatically, with COMEX silver futures rising over 11% and spot silver increasing over 10%, reaching a new historical high, with a year-to-date increase of 175%, significantly outpacing gold [1] Group 1: Price Dynamics - Spot silver prices have reached $79.19 per ounce, surpassing the price of a barrel of WTI crude oil, which closed at $56.93 [1] - The last time silver prices exceeded oil prices was in April 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - The current surge in silver prices is attributed to high demand from both investors and the industrial sector, with industrial demand now accounting for 50% to 60% of total silver demand [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The solar industry consumes nearly 30% of the annual silver production from mining and recycling, indicating a strong demand despite reductions in U.S. solar support [3] - The global supply of "pure silver" is nearly exhausted, with most silver now being produced as a byproduct of mining other metals like copper, gold, and zinc [3] - The market has been in a supply shortage for five consecutive years, with a projected cumulative shortfall of approximately 25,500 tons from 2021 to 2025 [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Current silver demand is projected to reach 1.24 billion ounces by 2025, while supply is expected to be only 1.01 billion ounces, resulting in a supply gap of 100 to 250 million ounces [4] - COMEX silver inventories have decreased by 70% since 2020, and London vaults have seen a 40% decline, with some regions having only 30 to 45 days of available silver inventory [4] - Analysts warn that precious metal prices are at levels difficult to justify based on fundamentals, with predictions of a potential decline in silver prices to around $42 by the end of next year [5][6]