江船运价表现强势，海轮疲软承压下行

Inland Transportation - The inland grain transportation market remains stable with limited price fluctuations, while Jiangsu shipping prices continue to rise due to a "more cargo than ships" situation [1] - As the year-end approaches, grain holders are more willing to sell for cash flow reasons, while some are reluctant to sell due to weak wheat prices, keeping the overall circulation of wheat stable and supporting transportation demand [1] - The low water levels in certain sections of the Yangtze River have negatively impacted navigation conditions, leading to tight effective capacity supply and further increasing Jiangsu shipping prices, with prices on the Chongqing line exceeding 70 yuan/ton [1] Coastal Transportation - The coastal wheat transportation market is currently subdued, with shipping prices from Jiangsu and Anhui to southern sales areas generally declining due to weak demand [3] - The core issue for the weakening prices is the lack of demand, as terminal flour consumption is not strong, and milling companies are operating at low rates, limiting the upward pressure on prices [3] - The price gap between wheat and corn has reduced the incentive for feed companies to purchase wheat, while increased arrivals of imported barley and sorghum at southern ports have further suppressed domestic grain demand [3] Market Outlook - The short-term demand for inland grain transportation is expected to remain stable, with Jiangsu shipping prices likely to stay firm as long as ship turnover efficiency does not improve significantly [2] - For coastal shipping, the supply of shipping capacity from Jiangsu and Anhui to southern coastal areas is ample, and without strong demand recovery, coastal shipping prices are expected to remain under pressure, primarily showing a stable to weak trend [4]