中金公司首席港股与海外策略分析师刘刚：2026年投资需均衡配置，宜跟随信用扩张的方向

Core Insights - Investors are facing a complex situation as the global economic cycle approaches a critical turning point by the end of 2025, with strong long-term growth potential from AI but high valuations and expectations [1] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for 2026 should shift from "single-sided bets" to "balanced allocation," embracing AI hardware as a certain growth direction while retaining high-dividend assets for hedging [2] Scarcity of Return Assets - The core characteristic of the 2026 market environment will be excess liquidity chasing scarce return assets, with the ability of these assets to expand being a key variable [3] - AI hardware, particularly supported by government policies, remains a clear direction for scarce return assets, despite high short-term expectations and valuations [3] High Dividend Assets - High dividend-paying assets are crucial hedging tools in an environment of contracting private credit, providing stable returns amidst overall credit contraction [4] - Strong cyclical sectors may benefit from U.S. fiscal expansion and monetary easing, potentially boosting demand for commodities like copper and aluminum [4] Opportunities in Hong Kong Market - The influx of southbound funds has provided significant liquidity to the Hong Kong market, with an average monthly inflow exceeding 120 billion from January to November 2025 [5] - The unique structure of the Hong Kong market, driven by mainland companies and influenced by both domestic and overseas liquidity, creates complex rotation patterns [5] Fund Flow Dynamics - The flow of southbound funds may become differentiated, with long-term allocation funds like insurance continuing to invest in high-dividend assets, while trading funds may shift back to A-shares if the market becomes more active [6] - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended for individual investors, with 10% to 20% of funds allocated to high-dividend assets [6] Sector Focus - The Hong Kong market's structural advantages remain prominent, with high dividends being a core attraction for institutional investors [6] - AI hardware, supported by policy, offers high certainty, while strong cyclical sectors benefiting from U.S. demand are also worth attention [6] - Individual investors are advised to use thematic ETFs to participate in the Hong Kong market rather than directly betting on individual stocks [7]