基金经理把脉新消费：高波动下的定价逻辑重构与2026机遇

Core Viewpoint - The new consumption sector is experiencing a significant shift in investment logic, driven by the Z generation's willingness to pay for emotional and identity-related values, leading to a divergence in market perceptions and valuations [1] Group 1: Valuation Discrepancies - The essence of the current market divergence in new consumption stems from a clash between traditional consumption investment frameworks and emerging consumption models, leading to challenges in long-term value assessment [2] - New consumption assets have broken the traditional valuation anchor of 20-30 times PE, shifting from "stable" to "cyclical" attributes, with the sustainability of demand driven by emotional and social factors still in question [2] - The differences between new and traditional consumption models manifest across multiple dimensions, including supply chain dynamics, consumer motivations, and communication channels, indicating that future excess returns will come from companies that can precisely address niche demands [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Methodological Clashes - The lack of sustainable methodologies supporting "emotional value" has led to market skepticism, where funding factors often overshadow fundamentals, influencing short-term price volatility [3] - The divergence in cognitive frameworks has resulted in a stark contrast between bullish and bearish perspectives, with bullish investors focusing on growth potential and bearish investors prioritizing profitability stability and brand strength [3] Group 3: Investment Signals and Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on the rationality of valuations and the search for a new equilibrium, with key observations indicating that new consumption assets are currently valued reasonably, driven by performance rather than speculative bubbles [4] - The performance of new consumption sectors is influenced not only by individual stocks but also by overall market conditions, highlighting the importance of dynamic assessments of growth potential and market trends [5] - Strategies such as "consumption + overseas expansion" and "consumption + technology" are gaining traction, with a focus on global demand fulfillment and leveraging technological innovations to create new consumer needs [6] Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Opportunities - Looking ahead to 2026, the new consumption sector is expected to return to its value roots, with a focus on companies that understand consumer needs and can convert short-term trends into long-term competitive advantages [7] - The low valuation environment presents potential investment opportunities, particularly in service consumption sectors that can stimulate employment and economic growth [7] - The emphasis on cost-effectiveness and the integration of emotional and health-related consumption trends are expected to remain significant areas for exploration in the new consumption landscape [7] Group 5: Core Logic of New Consumption Investment - The fundamental logic of new consumption investment revolves around identifying "true demand," with a focus on companies that can sustainably meet real consumer needs and build competitive barriers [8]