时报观察 | 汇率没有单边走势 双向波动是常态

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD has sparked market interest, but there is a divergence regarding whether this trend will continue, with expectations of two-way fluctuations becoming the norm [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - Since mid-October, the RMB has appreciated by nearly 1.7% against the USD, influenced by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and seasonal demand for currency settlement [1]. - The exchange rate is currently at a critical point around 7.0, which is seen as a battleground for bullish and bearish sentiments [1]. - Despite the typical year-end surge in currency settlement, recent data shows that the foreign exchange market remains balanced, with stable bank settlement and sales volumes in November [1]. Group 2: Market Influences and Expectations - The RMB's performance is not only dependent on domestic supply and demand but also on the trends of the USD index [2]. - The upcoming pause in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may alleviate downward pressure on the USD, despite the recent appreciation of the RMB [2]. - The CFETS RMB index has remained stable over the past two months, indicating that while the USD weakens, the RMB is maintaining a reasonable equilibrium against a basket of currencies [2]. Group 3: Risk Management and Regulatory Considerations - The central bank is vigilant about preventing one-sided expectations in the exchange rate market and may intervene if the RMB appreciates too quickly [2]. - Market participants, including enterprises and financial institutions, should adopt a risk-neutral approach and utilize foreign exchange derivatives for effective risk management [2].