汇率没有单边走势 双向波动是常态

Group 1 - The recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD has attracted market attention, with a notable increase of approximately 1.7% since mid-October [1] - The strengthening of the RMB is influenced by external factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts leading to a weaker USD index, as well as seasonal demand for currency settlement towards the year-end [1] - Despite the typical year-end peak in currency settlement, the latest data indicates that the foreign exchange market remains balanced, with stable bank settlement and sales, suggesting that the demand for currency settlement may not remain high [1] Group 2 - The RMB's exchange rate is affected not only by domestic supply and demand but also by the trends in the USD index, with potential downward pressure on the USD in the coming months due to the Fed's pause in interest rate cuts [2] - The CFETS RMB index, which measures the RMB against a basket of currencies, has remained relatively stable, indicating that while the RMB has appreciated, it is still maintaining a reasonable equilibrium level [2] - The central bank is likely to take measures to prevent one-sided expectations in the exchange rate market, especially if the RMB appreciates too quickly [2]