Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao·2025-12-28 19:10Group 1: Export Structure and Economic Growth - The export structure of Chinese enterprises has undergone a significant transformation, with the top three industries in 2025 being consumer electronics, power equipment, and semiconductors, compared to textiles, pharmaceuticals, and rare metals in 2010, indicating strategic opportunities [2] - Exports are identified as a key driver of China's economic growth, with resilience stemming from both cyclical and structural factors, including accelerated overseas expansion and new growth points in Africa [2] Group 2: Domestic Consumption - The transition from "residual consumption" to "willingness to consume" is highlighted as a critical focus for policy in the coming year, reflecting a shift from "investment in goods" to "investment in people" [3] - Service consumption innovation is expected to adopt a "trial and error" approach, with regions like Zhejiang and Guangdong likely to lead in developing new service consumption scenarios [3] Group 3: Capital Markets - The A-share market is characterized by a gradual rise in its bottom, but it is not expected to follow a one-sided upward trend, with the need to avoid creating a single-direction market expectation [4] - The correlation between A-shares and US stocks has increased since late June, with A-shares showing greater elasticity in response to US market volatility, which is beneficial for maintaining a healthy long-term upward trend [4] - The upward trend in the A-share market is expected to continue into 2026, with specific growth rates dependent on the overseas market environment and the growth narratives of companies with core technologies [4] Group 4: Profit Recovery and Fiscal Policy - Profit recovery is a key variable, with the potential for positive support for the market and indices if month-on-month data shows a sustained rebound, despite challenges in achieving year-on-year positive PPI [5] - Fiscal policy is anticipated to focus on "efficiency" rather than aggressive expansion, with a shift towards consumer and livelihood sectors to maximize the use of limited fiscal resources [5]