Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2025-12-28 19:24Core Insights - The investment landscape for 2026 is characterized by a shift from "single-sided bets" to "balanced allocation," focusing on AI hardware and high-dividend assets as a hedge against market volatility [1][5] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for 2026 should embrace AI hardware as a certain growth direction while retaining high-dividend assets for risk mitigation [1][5] - The market environment in 2026 will be defined by excess liquidity chasing scarce return assets, with the ability of these assets to expand being a critical variable [2] Group 2: Scarce Return Assets - AI hardware, particularly supported by government policies, remains a primary focus for investment, despite high short-term expectations leading to elevated valuations [2][3] - High-dividend assets are crucial in an environment of contracting private credit, providing stability and acting as a "cash is king" buffer during credit downturns [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market benefits from a unique structure where its fundamentals are driven by mainland companies while liquidity is influenced by both domestic and overseas capital [4] - The inflow of southbound funds is expected to show differentiation, with long-term investors like insurance funds continuing to increase holdings in high-dividend assets, while retail and private funds may fluctuate based on A-share market activity [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended, with 10% to 20% of funds directed towards high-dividend assets, adaptable based on individual risk preferences [5] - The Hong Kong market's structural advantages, particularly in high-dividend offerings, are highlighted as key attractions for institutional investors [5] - Strong cyclical sectors, particularly those benefiting from U.S. demand, are also recommended for consideration, while the consumer sector lacks fundamental support [5]