IMF Says Brazil’s System Is Working—So Why Is Crypto Booming Without a Crisis?

Core Insights - Brazil is challenging the assumption that cryptocurrencies thrive only when traditional financial systems fail, as evidenced by its high Selic rate of 15% and resilient credit markets [1][2][3] Group 1: Macroeconomic Context - The IMF's recent report indicates that Brazil's credit expansion is not a policy failure, with effective monetary transmission despite high interest rates [2][3] - Bank lending in Brazil increased by 11.5% in 2024, and corporate bond issuance surged by 30%, which typically would reduce interest in alternative financial assets like crypto [3][4] Group 2: Crypto Adoption Trends - Despite the high interest rates, Brazil's crypto activity rose by 43% year-over-year in 2025, indicating a disconnect between traditional macroeconomic narratives and actual crypto adoption [4] - The IMF emphasizes that Brazil's central bank has effectively managed monetary policy, contributing to strong income growth, low unemployment, and rapid fintech expansion, which sustain credit demand [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - Although policy tightening has affected lending rates and credit growth is beginning to slow, inflation expectations are being actively managed [6]