多因素支撑人民币汇率走强 双向波动仍将是常态

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is influenced by a weakening US dollar index, increased demand for currency settlement by enterprises at year-end, and the rising attractiveness of RMB assets [1][2][3]. External Factors - The US dollar index has weakened significantly, dropping 1.41% since December, primarily due to the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point interest rate cut, which has led to a general appreciation of non-USD currencies, including the RMB [2][3]. - The demand for currency settlement from export enterprises has increased, contributing to the seasonal strengthening of the RMB as companies are encouraged to settle in RMB due to its rising value [2][3]. Internal Factors - The attractiveness of RMB assets has increased, with foreign capital continuously flowing into China's capital markets and a growing scale of international investors holding Chinese government bonds, which enhances the buying power of the RMB [3]. Future Outlook - Experts predict that the RMB will experience two-way fluctuations in the future, as a sustained one-sided trend is deemed unsustainable. The potential for the US dollar index to rise again poses a risk to the RMB's strength [4]. - The current interest rate differential between domestic and foreign currencies remains significant, which could reduce the willingness of enterprises to settle in RMB if the appreciation trend slows down [4]. Recommendations for Enterprises - Companies, especially those engaged in foreign trade, are advised to adopt a risk-neutral approach and avoid speculating on one-sided RMB trends. They should focus on managing exchange rate risks effectively [6]. - Practical measures include optimizing commercial contracts to use RMB for pricing and settlement, and utilizing financial instruments such as forward foreign exchange contracts and swaps to hedge against long-term risks [6].